Spain faces an economic scenario marked by a growing aging population: in 2024, there were 9.9 million people over 65 years old, a figure that could reach 16.6 million by 2050. This demographic reality puts pressure on Social Security's accounts, since the ratio of active workers per pensioner will drop from two to about 1.3 in the coming decades.
At the same time, dependence on public income is intensifying: the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility warns of a 7% GDP deficit and a 149% GDP debt by 2050, if structural reforms are not implemented. Pension spending already exceeds €13,500 million ($13,500 million) per month, 12% of GDP, and will continue to grow as the baby boom generation retires.
Meanwhile, job insecurity is endemic: more than 60% of people under 30 have temporary contracts, with an average gross salary of around €1,558 ($1,558); this will directly impact their future pensions, since they are linked to contributions and, therefore, to the income received.
Santiago Niño Becerra's diagnosis: an "unsustainable" system in the medium term
In recent public appearances — on Els Matins de TV3 and La Ventana de Cadena SER —, economist Santiago Niño Becerra has reiterated that the Spanish pension system, in its current configuration, is unsustainable.
According to him, contributory pensions are directly proportional to salaries during working life — "if salaries are low, contributions will be low and that will have an implication later on the pension" —, and that condemns current generations to insufficient pensions.
Niño Becerra also warns that, without adjustments, in 25–30 years pensions will be lower than current ones. This forecast is joined by a general climate of distrust: one third of people over 60 do not trust they will continue receiving payments in the future, according to him, because they understand the economic reality.
Measures under scrutiny
Niño Becerra foresees progressive structural changes, including:
- Extending the pension calculation to the entire working life — instead of the last 35 years —, which will reduce its amount.
- Raising the legal retirement age to 67–70 years, following models like the Danish one.
- Tightening penalties for early retirement and adjusting revaluation according to the sustainability factor.
Social and mental impact: the gap between generations
Niño Becerra also highlights the psychological consequences of pessimism about pensions. He cites that many young people told him: "Why do I have to pay your pension if I won't have a pension?". This lack of expectations generates a disenchantment that worsens an already hostile labor reality.
No less serious: 1 in 3 people over 60 distrust the continuity of the system. This loss of trust undermines one of the most basic social pacts: intergenerational solidarity.
Urgent reforms and alternatives to consider
The pension fund closed 2024 with €9,300 million ($9,300 million), but that doesn't even cover one month's current spending, of €13,500 million ($13,500 million) per month. Although the Government expects to recover up to €9,000 million ($9,000 million) by the end of 2025, experts warn that this is only a partial solution.
From the Fiscal Authority (AIReF), a three-year evaluation of the system and a long-term strategy aligned with real spending and income projections are being demanded.
As a response to public uncertainty, supplementary savings have gained prominence. Simplified Employment Pension Plans (PPES) allow annual contributions up to €5,750 ($5,750), versus €1,500 ($1,500) in individual plans, but participation is still low: only 53,000 self-employed people (out of more than 3 million) have them.
The combination of demographic and salary pressure, together with the low use of well-designed wealth products, suggests that the future lies in mixed pension models, as is the case in Nordic countries.